2020 Launch year – final reckoning: Lots of launch failures, the most ever satellites launched, while UK takes surprise runner-up position

by | Jan 6, 2021 | Launches, Seradata News, Technology, Virgin Galactic

According to the Seradata SpaceTrak launch and satellite database, the “final score” for launches in 2020 is 11 launch failures out of 114 orbital attempts. One of these failures was really a minor partial involving a pair of stuck Lemur satellites on a Vega (only about 3 per cent of the satellite payloads aboard). While the overall launch failure rate for the year was only raised slightly above average, at just under 10 per cent, nevertheless, the total number of 11 failures made it the worst result in terms of pure events since 1971, which had 17 launch failures. 1982 being the closest in the modern era at 10 failures.

With respect to launch nations, China came out on top. But only just at 39. the USA was a close second at 37 – mainly thanks to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launches (especially of its Starlink constellation). Russia came a distant third at 15 launches with France (actually Europe via Arianespace) sharing the fourth spot with relative newcomer New Zealand (due to Rocket Lab) at 7 launches a piece.

Some 1282 spacecraft were attempted to be orbited in 2020 (19 of these failed reach any kind of orbit)  – historically the largest number ever attempted and more than double 2019’s 528 total or 2018’s 578. This was mainly due to constellation launches (e.g. Starlink).

When it came to the nationality of the ownership of the satellites launched, the USA easily led the way with 994 spacecraft, however there was dramatic change in the number two spot which was taken by surprise newcomer the United Kingdom at 106 satellites, pushing China to third at 79 and a fourth placed Russia setting a lowly 22. Yes – you have read that right: having been pretty much absent for decades, the UK’s ascendancy to second place rests on the shoulders of its acquisition (with India’s Bharti) of half of the OneWeb constellation.

It was not all brand new rockets. Some returned after a long layoff including Angara A5’s second launch. Courtesy: Roscosmos

Maiden launches featured this year including the arrivals of Astra Space Rocket 3.0, the Long March 5B, Long March 7A, Long March 8, the Kuaizhou-11, and the Qasad. While some of these rockets – mainly the Long March debutants – were more derivative than brand new, their arrival had a major effect on the number of launch failures as maiden flights traditionally have very high failure rates.

The year’s failures began in February with the launch of an Iranian Safir 2A Simorgh rocket which failed to achieve orbital velocity and lost its Zafar 1 remote sensing/store-forward satellite which fell into the Indian Ocean. The next was in March when a Long March 7A (CZ-7A) debut launch failed after an apparent second stage explosion at 52 seconds after lift off losing the Chinese TJS-6 communications technology test and possible early warning satellite.

The third failure of the year was probably the most expensive loss. The Palapa N1 communications satellite was lost in April when a Long March 3B-G2 (CZ-3B-G2) (2) Improved rocket fell into the Pacific when the rocket’s third stage failed to ignite. The satellite was insured for US$242.5 million and the claim was paid. The fourth loss was in May when the maiden flight of the Virgin Orbit LauncherOne air-launched rocket failed after a shutdown of the first stage engine due to a propellant line rupture. The Starshine 4 student atmospheric research satellite plus a student payload attached to the rocket was lost.

Number five occurred in July when seven small satellites (Faraday 1 store-forward satellite, the CE-SAT-IB remote sensing satellite, and five Flock 4E remote sensing satellites) were lost on an Electron launch vehicle. An electrical connector coming out cut power from the rocket’s battery to the electrically powered turbo-pumps of the Rutherford Second Stage engine causing its premature shutdown.

The sixth launch failure, also in July, was on the maiden flight of a Chinese Kuaizhou 11 (KZ-11) rocket when a third stage ignition failure resulted in the loss of the Jilin 1 High Resolution 02E imaging satellite (insured value of circa US$40 million) plus a small technology test navsat called Centispace-1 S2. While launch failures accounted for the majority of likely payouts for insurers, there were some in orbit failures as well to add to their woes. A full review of the insurance year will be published later.

Astra rocket launch attempt 3.2 lifts off from Kodiak Island…but it did not make it into orbit. Courtesy: Astra Space

Orbital “Launch failure” number seven was actually a very minor partial failure when two Lemur satellites out of a total of 65 carried refused to separate from the Vega rocket’s upper stage in September. Also in September, the eighth one was a true failure when the maiden flight of the instrumented Astra Rocket 3 (flight 3.1) failed during its first stage burn with the rocket falling back to Earth and exploding on impact. The ninth launch failure occurred on the same day, 12 September, a Chinese Kuaizhou 1A rocket failed losing the Jilin Gaofen 02C high resolution satellite. Details of this failure are sketchy.

The tenth launch failure (in November) was much clearer and gain featured the Vega launch vehicle. The surprisingly uninsured Spanish SEOSat/Ingenio high-resolution optical imaging satellite – with a mission value of circa US$265 million – was lost, along with the French Taranis magnetosphere research satellite. Causation was traced to improperly connected control cables causing the Vega’s AVUM upper stage to start tumbling.

The final (eleventh) launch failure occurred in December. This was the second flight of the Astra Rocket 3 (flight 3.2) which nearly made it but failed to achieve orbital velocity due to an incorrect propellant mixture ratio in the upper stage.

Starship prototype SN8 ignites its engines before the flip over manoeuvre. Courtesy: SpaceX

With respect to suborbital launches, notable failures in December included a first second shutdown for Virgin Galactic’s air-launched SpaceShipTwo – a craft that has yet to breach the “Karman line” 100 km limit of space. Thankfully, the crewed rocket plane did manage to glide back to a safe landing. While also not counted as a true space launch, the very endo-atmospheric launch hop of the SpaceX SN8 test rocket ended in an explosive landing. Mind you, it had done all the difficult bits up to that point.

The reusable Falcon 9 first stage B1059 on its fifth flight lands successfully at LZ-1. Courtesy: SpaceX

SpaceX continued to have success with its reusable Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy rocket first/booster stages (SpaceX even managed to refly two of these, B1049 and B1051, for their respective seventh time each in November and December). That said, others noted that these part reusable launch vehicles had not significantly increased demand for launches and that SpaceX’s high flight numbers were really driven by the need to launch its own Starlink constellation. Nevertheless, as SpaceX pursues its goal of an all reusable two-stage launch system in the shape of its Starship/Superbooster combination, there were signs that others had been stung into action and were now taking reusable technology seriously. China, Europe, India and New Zealand (via the Rocket Lab programme) are all now undertaking significant development of reusable launch vehicles.

 

SeraData
Seradata produce the renowned SpaceTrak Launch & Satellite Database. Trusted by 100 of the world’s leading Space organisations, SpaceTrak is a fully queryable database used for market analysis, failure/risk assessment, spectrum analysis and space situational awareness (SSA).

For more information go to www.seradata.com/spacetrak

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